DOW 理论的七点基本原则和翻转走势的判别信号

sharkeater 05-02-10 04:30

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[Sharkeater] DOW 理论的七点基本原则和翻转走势的判别信号精华I

CHARLES H. DOW 是西方现代技术分析理论的鼻祖。这里介绍他的理论的7点基本原则。 1， Everything is discounted by the price Averages, specifically, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average. Since the Averages reflect all information, experience, knowledge, opinions, and activities of all stock market investors, everything that could possibly affect the demand for or supply of stocks is discounted by the Averages. 2. There are three trends in stock prices. The Primary Tide is the major long term trend. But no trend moves in a straight line for long, and Secondary Reactions are the intermediate-term corrections that interrupt and move in an opposite direction against the Primary Tide. Ripples are the very minor day-to0day fluctuations that are of concern only to short-term trades and not at all to Dow Theorists. 3, Primary Tides going up, also known as Bull Markets, usually have three up moves in stock prices. The first move up is the result of far-sighted investors accumulating stocks at a tiem when business is slow but anticipated to improve. The second move up is a result of investors buying stocks in reaction to improved fundamental business conditions and increasing corporate earnings. The final up move occurs when the general public finally notices that all the financial news is good. During the final up move, speculation runs rampant. to be continued [ Last edited by sharkeater on 2003-8-7 at 06:44 AM ]

Originally posted by smolt at 2003-8-6 11:34 PM: 试试，括号里是自己加的，翻错的地方可能很多~ 1，一切事情都（可以）折算成价格平均指数，特别是道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯交通运输股平均指数，由平均指数反映出所有的信息，过程，认识，意见和所有市场投资者的行为，所有能影响股票供需的事情都被均值反映。（说的是技术面的完全性） 2，股票价格有三种趋势。原始浪意味着主要的长期趋势，但没有一个趋势可以以长期作直线运行，二级波（反作用）是与首要趋势相反的中级修正（趋势）。涟漪则是对道氏理论影响非常小的，仅对短期交易起作用的日间波动。（说的是长期，中期，短期趋势） 3，原始波浪的上升－－即牛市－－经常在股票价格上产生三阶段的上升运动。第一阶段上升运动是当贸易降低但预期上升时，有远见的投资者囤积股票的结果。第二阶段上升运动是投资者根据改善的金融状况和增加的公司赢利卖进股票的结果，最后的上升运动于普通大众终于意识到一切金融消息都向好时发生。在最后的上升阶段中，投机非常狂热。（说的是牛市的三个阶段，三期）

Originally posted by minipig at 2003-8-6 08:13 PM: 能问斑竹这是出自那一本书，，书名叫什么！！能介绍一下吗，，还有能请教一下高手们有什么样的好书可以介绍一下。。谢谢

我在前贴中ＣＨＡＲＬＥＳ　关于市场发展的六个阶段的论述中，有非常完整的书名，作者，包括ＩＳＢＮ书目。

Originally posted by smolt at 2003-8-6 11:34 PM: 试试，括号里是自己加的，翻错的地方可能很多~ 1，一切事情都（可以）折算成价格平均指数，特别是道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯交通运输股平均指数，由平均指数反映出所有的信息，过程，认识，意见和所有市场 ...

非常感谢你的帮助。　翻译得很好。 2003-8-7 01:19 AM

sharkeater

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05-02-10 04:40 回复

　４，　　Ｐｒｉｍａｒｙ　Ｔｉｄｅｓ　ｇｏｉｎｇ　ｄｏｗｎ，　ａｌｓｏ　ｋｎｏｗｎ　ａｓ　Ｂｅａｒ　Ｍａｒｋｅｔs, usually have three down moves. The furst move down occurs when far-sighted investors sell based on their experienced judgement that high valuations and booming corporate earnings are unsustainable. The second move down reflects panic as a now fearful public dumps at any price the same stock they just recently bought at muck higher prices. The final move down results from distress selling and the need to raise cash. 5, The two Averages must confirm each other. To signal a Primary Tide Bull Market major trend, both Averages must rise above their respective highs of previous upward Secondary Reactions. To signal a Primary Tide Bear Market major trend, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average muxt drop below their respective lows of previous Secondary Reactions. A move to a new high or low bu just one Average alone is not meaningful. Also, it is not uncommon for one Average to signal a change in trend before the other. The Dow theory does not stipulate any time limit on trend confirmation by both Averages. 6, Only end of day, closing prices on the Averages are considered. Price movements during the day are ignored. 7, The Primary Tide remains in effect until a Dow Theory reversal has been signaled by both Averages.

Originally posted by lazycat at 2003-8-7 09:46 AM: 4. 原始波浪的下降-即熊市-一般也有三个阶段的向下运动.第一阶段下跌,是由于那些有远见的投资者从经验上判定,他们所持有股票的上市公司的业绩评估和盈利可能是虚假或违背实际的,因而抛售手中的股票.第二阶段下落,是由于人们沮丧的发现不久前买来的高价股票将要变成废纸,人们惊惶失措,恨不得以任意低价抛售手中的股票.第三阶段下落,是因为人们急于套现,廉价出售股票. 5. 必须确认前述两种平均指数,原始波浪显示牛市的主要趋势信号是,当两种指数各自在它们的最近的前一阶段的反弹高点之上.而当出现熊市预兆时,道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯交通运输股平均指数，则分别在它们的最近的前一阶段下落的低点之下.尽管某一指标在另一个指标变化之前发生跌涨,预示了趋势变化的情况并不少见,但仅仅是两个指标中的某一个出现了新高或新低并不能确实预示趋势转向,道氏理论仅仅给出一种预测方法,并不保证在任何情况下该两种指标的变化都一定会发生趋势转向. 6.只须关注平均指数的每天终盘价格,忽略每天交易期间的价格变动. 7.当两个平均指数出现了道氏理论的逆转信号时,将预示原始波浪的结束. (错误难免，谢谢指正！谢谢smolt 的参考译文和鲨版主的原文）